Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia (Prognoza furtuna pentru astazi in Europa si America de Nord)

2016042306_201604211106_0_stormforecast.xml_

Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia (Prognoza furtuna pentru astazi in Europa si America de Nord).

Thunderstorm forecast Europe

 2016042306_201604211106_0_stormforecast.xml_

Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 22 Apr 2016 06:00 to Sat 23 Apr 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 21 Apr 2016 11:06
Forecaster: TUSCHY

…SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION …

A broad cyclonic vortex over N/NE Europe steers numerous short-waves over CNTRL Europe to the east. An upper trough over the Bay of Biscay moves slowly east while weakening. A subtropical jet affects the SW/S-Mediterranean. Embedded short-waves also induce a localized thunderstorm risk.

Regarding severe probabilities, there is not much to talk about. Roughly 400-700 J/kg weakly capped MLCAPE exists over France and N-Spain. Some overlap of 15 m/s DLS with
CAPE occurs over N-Spain, but nothing more than a few marginally organized thunderstorms with graupel and gusty winds to expect. Over France, DLS of less than 10 m/s assists in disorganized convection. Enhanced LL CAPE could result in an isolated funnel report … not enough for a level 1.

A similar risk exists over N-CNTRL Italy with marginal hail and gusty winds.

Belarus will see an overlap of 500 J/kg weakly capped MLCAPE with somewhat stronger DLS (in excess of 20 m/s). However, best synoptic-scale forcing will exit the area to the east before diurnal driven diabatic heating will support better CAPE around noon/afternoon. Hence expect scattered thunderstorms with graupel and gusty winds. Good LL CAPE and some SHR-1 may induce a low-end tornado threat during peak heating.
The primary focus for more organized convection will be an eastbound moving cold front, crossing SE Belarus/NW Ukraine before noon from W to E. 15-20 m/s 0-3 km shear may
support a few severe wind gust events, but uncertainties exist how deep convection will grow (warm EL temperatures forecast). Hence no level 1 was issued for now.Thunderstorm-forecast-Europe-2 Thunderstorm-Probability_20160422_Europe

North America thunderstorm forecast Thunderstorm-forecast-North-America-2 Thunderstorm-Probability_20160422_North-America

Asia thunderstorm forecast Thunderstorm-forecast-Asia-3 Thunderstorm-Probability_20160422_Asia

 

Screen-Shot-2014-03-19-at-14.31.20

Lightnings past 24 hLightnings-Europe-past-24h-2 Lightnings-America-past-24h-2

 

 

Credit: weatheronline.com, estofex.com, wetteronline.de

The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data.

www.stirimeteo.com is providing this data “as is”.

www.stirimeteo.com disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.

In no event will stirimeteo.com be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.

Utilizatorul îsi asumă întregul risc legat de utilizarea acestor date.

www.stirimeteo.com furnizeaza aceste date “ca atare”.

 www.stirimeteo.com declina orice fel de garantii, fie explicite sau implicite, incluzând (fără a se limita) orice garantii implicite de vandabilitate sau potrivire pentru un anumit scop.

În nici un caz stirimeteo.com nu poate sa fie raspunzator catre tine sau la orice terta parte pentru orice daune directe, indirecte sau profit pierdut rezultat din utilizarea sau utilizarea abuzivă a acestor date.

 

Leave a Reply