Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia (Prognoza furtuna pentru astazi in Europa, America de Nord si Asia)

Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia (Prognoza furtuna pentru astazi in Europa, America de Nord si Asia).

Storm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia. Thunderstorm forecast.

Thunderstorm forecast Europe2016091006_201609082028_1_stormforecast.xml_

Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 09 Sep 2016 06:00 to Sat 10 Sep 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 08 Sep 2016 20:28
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for Catalonia mainly for large hail and excessive rain.


Wavy trough-ridge-trough pattern affects N-Europe with no substantial shift to the east. Further south, a pronounced closed upper low still resides over the CNTRL Mediterranean and again reveals no significant forward motion. This stable pattern (motion-wise) results in scattered thunderstorms mainly over and next to the Mediterranean. The main bulk of activity occurs beneath the large-scale upper low, which includes an area from the Alps to Greece. Weak DLS and sub-1 kJ/kg MLCAPE support scattered multicells with locally heavy rain and gusty winds, next to graupel. A localized stronger but still sub-severe storm may erupt over the NE Aegean Sea and next to the Sea of Marmara, where DLS increases to 15 m/s. An isolated large hail event is possible.

Presence of rich maritime BL moisture and a northward crawling EML create 1-1.5 J/kg MLCAPE over Catalonia during the afternoon hours. CI occurs either diurnal driven over mountains or in response to the passage of a weak short wave, which rounds the base of the deep NE Atlantic trough. DLS of less than 10 m/s supports disorganized convection. Still, magnitude of CAPE my support a few intense updrafts with large hail and heavy rain and a level 1 was issued. Thunderstorms gradually weaken until midnight.

Else, isolated thunderstorms develop over a broad area. During the night, the main activity starts to shift offshore within the highlighted areas. This activity remains sub-severe.

We will keep an eye on the cold front passage over NW-Europe, linked to a rapidly NE-ward swinging mid-level trough. There will be a short time-frame around 18-21 UTC (according to GFS), where a dry slot and the eastbound moving cold front overlap. However, strongest lift will already be displaced to the east with strong subsidence indicated. Nevertheless, models agree in weak CAPE build-up along / just behind that front and a temporarily better structured convective line can’t be ruled out N of Ireland and over Scotland. The main threat would be strong wind gusts. Whether a low-end tornado risk evolves cannot yet be answered due to ongoing differences of aforementioned features in various models. Overall uncertainties preclude the issuance of any lightning area for now.Thunderstorm-forecast-Europe-6 Thunderstorm-Probability_20160909_europe

North America thunderstorm forecastThunderstorm-forecast-North-America-5 Thunderstorm-Probability_20160909_North-America


Asia thunderstorm forecast Thunderstorm-forecast-Asia-6 Thunderstorm-Probability_20160909_asia



Lightnings past 24 h




The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. is providing this data “as is”. disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.

In no event will be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.


Utilizatorul îsi asumă întregul risc legat de utilizarea acestor date. furnizeaza aceste date “ca atare”. declina orice fel de garantii, fie explicite sau implicite. Se includ (fără a se limita) si orice garantii implicite de vandabilitate sau potrivire pentru un anumit scop.

În nici un caz nu poate sa fie raspunzator catre tine sau la orice terta parte pentru orice daune directe, indirecte sau profit pierdut rezultat din utilizarea sau utilizarea abuzivă a acestor date.

Leave a Reply