Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia (Prognoza furtuna pentru astazi si maine in Europa, America de Nord si Asia)

Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia (Prognoza furtuna pentru astazi si maine in Europa, America de Nord si Asia).

Active storms over Europe. Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia.

Follow our Live Lightnings Europe Page here Lightnings Europe

Estofex EuropeThunderstorm forecast

Storm Forecast
Valid: Mon 07 May 2018 06:00 to Tue 08 May 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 07 May 2018 02:25
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE

A level 2 was issued across N Israel, Lebanon, Syria and SE Turkey mainly for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes.

A level 1 was issued across SW France mainly for large hail and heavy rainfall.

A level 1 was issued for SW Iberian Peninsula mainly for large hail.

A level 1 was issued for N Algeria mainly for large hail and wind gusts.

A level 1 was issued for central Ukraine and E Moldova mainly for large hail and tornado chances.

SYNOPSIS

High pressure centered over southern Scandinavia and central/western Europe separates strong western flow over Scandinavia from remnants of low pressure over southern Europe with convective weather conditions. Easterly upper flow carries a cold pool over western Ukraine, a weaker one over the Alps/France, where a mid level cold front should stimulate enhanced convective development over S/SW France.
The most significant system is a low over the eastern Mediterranean Sea with a strong jet stream aloft over the Middle East, where a cold front should trigger strong convective developments.

DISCUSSION

…Middle East…

GFS indicates over 30 m/s DLS and 300 m2/s2 0-3 km SREH supporting supercell development. The cold front as a linear trigger likely will force a linear MCS with severe wind gusts and sand storms as main threat. The embedded or isolated supercells likely produce large hail, gusts and tornadoes are possible thanks to strong 0-1 km shear as well.

…S and SW France…

Vertical wind shear is borderline moderate at 10 m/s 0-6 km. If more than 1000 J/kg MLCAPE indeed forms – which is questionable since model soundings need 13-14 g/kg BL mixing ratios, where 10-11 g/kg have been observed so far – the chances of large hail may in that case be enough to warrant a level 1. The concentration of storms is likely enhanced thanks to the mid level cold front pushing westwards, although the theta-e seems more associated with very dry air in the mid levels than a temperature decrease.

…SW Iberia..

15 m/s DLS but weak triggering, an isolated supercell may form and produce large hail, also helped by 2000 m high LCL.

…N Algeria…

A narrow zone where convective initiation is possible under strong SREH can allow supercells with chances of large hail and severe gusts.

…Ukraine/Moldova…

A westward moving warm front appears under the influence of upper winds around the cold upper low to the west, with enhanced DLS (10-15 m/s, 15-20 m/s 1-8 km) and LLS (10 m/s). Slight chances of large hail and tornadoes exists if a supercell would form.

Thunderstorm forecast Europe

North America thunderstorm forecast  

Asia thunderstorm forecast  

Lightnings past 24 h

 

America

Credit: weatheronline.com, estofex.com, wetteronline.de

The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data.
www.stirimeteo.com is providing this data “as is”.
www.stirimeteo.com disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.
In no event will stirimeteo.com be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.
 
Utilizatorul îsi asumă întregul risc legat de utilizarea acestor date.
www.stirimeteo.com furnizeaza aceste date “ca atare”.
 www.stirimeteo.com declina orice fel de garantii, fie explicite sau implicite. Se includ (fără a se limita) si orice garantii implicite de vandabilitate sau potrivire pentru un anumit scop.
În nici un caz stirimeteo.com nu poate sa fie raspunzator catre tine sau la orice terta parte pentru orice daune directe, indirecte sau profit pierdut rezultat din utilizarea sau utilizarea abuzivă a acestor date.

Leave a Reply