Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia (Prognoza furtuna pentru astazi si maine in Europa, America de Nord si Asia).
Active storms over Europe. Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia.
Follow our Live Lightnings Europe Page here Lightnings Europe
Valid: Wed 29 Aug 2018 06:00 to Thu 30 Aug 2018 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 28 Aug 2018 22:18
A level 1 was issued across NE Spain mainly for large hail and severe wind gusts.
A level 1 was issued across E France, Switzerland, SW and S Germany and extreme NW Austria mainly for large hail, severe wind gusts and excessive precipitation.
A level 1 was issued across Belarus and W Russia mainly for excessive precipitation and large hail.
As of Tuesday 22 UTC, a large convective system is crossing W France, ahead of a short-wave trough and a surface cold front. These two features are forecast to move E-wards during the day, reaching Switzerland, Germany, Denmark and eventually W Poland, NW Austria and W Poland by the end of the forecast period. Ahead of the cold front, an airmass with modest lower tropospheric moisture will be advected towards E and NE. Towards the E, a low will reside over NW Belarus and W Russia, almost stalling and lifting only very slowly NE-wards. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to initiate scattered convection over the area.
… E Spain …
A broad short-wave will approach the region from W towards the afternoon hours with windspeeds around 10 m/s at 500 hPa level. Combined with easterly flow at the surface, DLS values around 15 m/s are likely near the coastline. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will initiate in upslope flow in around 1000 J/kg, owing to lapse rates of around 7 K/km and moist lower troposphere. Well organised multicells and perhaps even a brief supercell will be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
… E France, Germany, Switzerland, extreme NW Austria …
The evolution of situation will likely depend on the overnight development of the MCS currently ongoing over France. Exact positioning of the front and northward extent of a tongue of low level moisture is also different in NWP output and thus a broad Lvl 1 was chosen as a solution. Several hundreds up to around 1500 J/kg of CAPE are simulated ahead of the advancing cold front with DLS values ranging from 10 to around 15 m/s. High resolution NWP output simulates development of scattered multicells, including some line segments along the front, progressing NE-wards during the day. Isolated large hail will be possible with stronger cells, the threat being somewhat limited by a lack of steeper lapse rates, along with some severe wind gusts. Along the Alps and over S France, excessive precipitation threat will also be present. Storms will weaken with deteriorating moisture as they progress towards E Germany and W Czech Republic during the Wednesday night.
… Belarus to W Russia …
Ahead of a slowly moving cold front, a tongue of moisture will contribute to skinny CAPE profiles. Nevertheless, around 15 m/s of DLS may allow for a few well organised multicells capable of isolated large hail and/or excessive precipitation as cells train in flow parallel to the initiating boundary.
Lightnings past 24 h
Credit: weatheronline.com, estofex.com, wetteronline.de