Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia (Prognoza furtuna pentru astazi si maine in Europa, America de Nord si Asia)

Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia (Prognoza furtuna pentru astazi si maine in Europa, America de Nord si Asia).

Active storms over Europe. Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia

Thunderstorm forecast EuropeThunderstorm forecast Europe

Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 13 Sep 2016 06:00 to Wed 14 Sep 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 12 Sep 2016 20:23
Forecaster: DAFIS

A level 2 was issued for parts of N Spain, France and UK mainly for excessive precipitation, severe wind gusts, tornadoes and to a lesser extent large hail.

A level 1 surrounds level 2 area for the main threats but with less coverages.


A positive tilted trough breaks from the synoptic flow and turns into a cold pool over the Bay of Biscay during Tuesday. The WAA results in warm mid-levels over West Europe, the strong mid-upper level vorticity advection and many ingredients at the surface, converge to issue a level 2 area for widespread thunderstorm activity. Instability is also found in South Europe especially in Italy and Greece where numerous pulsating storms are expected, while in the rest parts of the continent a high pressure system will suppress convective phenomena.


During the first half of the day we expect a strengthening convergence line to move from Portugal eastwards and excessive precipitation is forecast, as well as large hail in N Spain where the steep lapse rates will feed some strong updrafts even though global models do not produce more than 500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Moreover these storms will be formed inside a highly sheared environment with a speed maxima (30 m/s) at 850 hPa over SW France suggesting severe to damaging wind gusts at the surface. After 12-15z the eastbound moving cold front on the surface increases the severe risk over France and UK, where NWP models predict a tongue of high effective PW (>30 mm) and strong 0-6km shear (directional and speed). Forecast soundings suggest deep saturated profiles, and modest SREH0-3km values (limited supercell threat) so large hail risk is rather limited or at least we expect very few events of hail larger than 2cm. Tail-end storms and training MCS activity also increases the flash flood risk. As storms near the coasts of France and UK will cluster in the late afternoon, the overlap of LLS/CAPE also increases the tornado threat. Thunderstorm activity will progressively move east during the early morning of Wednesday, with South France having an increased risk for serious flash floods. thunderstorm-forecast-europe thunderstorm-probability_20160913_europe

North America thunderstorm forecast thunderstorm-forecast-north-america thunderstorm-probability_20160913_north-america


Asia thunderstorm forecast thunderstorm-forecast-asia thunderstorm-probability_20160913_asia



Thunderstorm forecast for today

Lightnings past 24 h




The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data. is providing this data “as is”. disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.

In no event will be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.


Utilizatorul îsi asumă întregul risc legat de utilizarea acestor date. furnizeaza aceste date “ca atare”. declina orice fel de garantii, fie explicite sau implicite. Se includ (fără a se limita) si orice garantii implicite de vandabilitate sau potrivire pentru un anumit scop.

În nici un caz nu poate sa fie raspunzator catre tine sau la orice terta parte pentru orice daune directe, indirecte sau profit pierdut rezultat din utilizarea sau utilizarea abuzivă a acestor date.

Leave a Reply