Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia (Prognoza furtuna pentru astazi si maine in Europa, America de Nord si Asia).
Active storms over Europe. Thunderstorm forecast #Europe, #NorthAmerica and #Asia
Thunderstorm forecast Europe
Valid: Tue 16 May 2017 06:00 to Wed 17 May 2017 06:00 UTC
Issued: Mon 15 May 2017 21:54
A level 1 was issued for parts of Ukraine, Hungary and Romania mainly for excessive preciitation and large amounts of small hail.
A level 1 was issued for S Italy mainly for excessive preciitation and large amounts of small hail.
A longwave trough is crossing a large part of East Europe, resulting in widespread thunderstorm activity during Tuesday and a meso-low is about to form over the Ionian Sea. At the same time, a ridge is stretching from NW Africa towards S Scandinavia, bringing warm air masses mostly to Spain and France. The cyclone in W Russia is accompanied by a vorticity max in the mid/upper levels but apart from a convergence line in N Ukraine, cold LL air masses suggest mostly stable conditions. A cold front from the Atlantic Ocean is approaching the coasts of Spain and France where some storms may pop-up in the evening embedded in the stratiform rain bands which may produce note-worthy rainfall amounts. During the late afternoon night a vorticity lobe over the Ionian Sea will provide lift to the tropical LL air mass, producing pulsating storms. In the afternoon, high amounts of precipitation may also be accumulated in Greece, FYROM and S Romania but they cannot verify a level 1 area. Storms should appear in the early morning of Wednesday in S Aegean Sea.
…. Ukraine, Hungary and Romania ….
The vorticity lobe is now crossing Poland (15/05 21z), entering the level 1 area the following hours. Storms should appear in the borders with Ukraine and Slovakia even before 06z, under a weakly sheared environment with MLCAPE slightly exceeding 1000 J/kg. A level 1 was issued due to steep mid-level lapse rates, weak mid-level flow and high PW values which can result in slow moving storm cells, producing excessive precipitation and large amounts of small hail. Hail could reach the surface as freezing level is calculated near 2200m and NCAPE values suggest strong up/downdraughts.
…. South Italy ….
The same conditions are expected in S Italy, with slightly better kinematics since local convergence lines can form near the coasts due to sea breeze. The contribution of sea breeze will be higher if diabatic heating will take place in the morning. High PW over the area is expected to produce excessive precipitation and large amounts of small hail in more elevated areas. Weak mid-level wind flow will keep storms almost stationary, increasing the flash-flood threat.
Lightnings past 24 h
Credit: weatheronline.com, estofex.com, wetteronline.de
The user assumes the entire risk related to its use of this data.
www.stirimeteo.com is providing this data “as is”.
www.stirimeteo.com disclaims any and all warranties, whether express or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.
In no event will stirimeteo.com be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.
Utilizatorul îsi asumă întregul risc legat de utilizarea acestor date.
www.stirimeteo.com furnizeaza aceste date “ca atare”.
www.stirimeteo.com declina orice fel de garantii, fie explicite sau implicite. Se includ (fără a se limita) si orice garantii implicite de vandabilitate sau potrivire pentru un anumit scop.
În nici un caz stirimeteo.com nu poate sa fie raspunzator catre tine sau la orice terta parte pentru orice daune directe, indirecte sau profit pierdut rezultat din utilizarea sau utilizarea abuzivă a acestor date.